Development of an agent-based model to improve emergency planning for floods and dam failures

Abstract The Life Safety Model (LSM) is an agent-based model which assists with emergency planning and risk assessments for floods dam failures by providing estimates of fatalities evacuation times. LSM represents the interactions agents (i.e. people, vehicles, buildings) floodwater. helps to increase accuracy loss life times these events taking into account a number parameters are not described in empirical models, such as people's characteristics (e.g. age gender), building construction types, road network. has been applied three historic flood-related disasters: 1953 coastal floods, UK; 1959 Malpasset Dam failure, France; 2019 Brumadinho tailings disaster, Brazil. These illustrate how verified improvements routes, early warnings, refuge locations could have reduced fatalities. value using calculate ‘exact’ flood deaths or times, but assess if management interventions can significantly reduce them. also be used whether societal posed dams defences ‘acceptable’.